Oleg Panteleev, Aviaport
Release Date: 2009-02-24
The history of Russian aerospace industry has always been turbulent, even during the ‘golden’ Soviet times. As an expert in this sphere, how do you estimate the current position of the industry in Russia and the competitiveness of Russian aircraft?In order to estimate the competitiveness of Russian aerospace industry against the foreign aircraft, we should first keep in mind its current position in general. Back in early 90s it became clear that State participation in this sphere was shrinking dramatically… As a result, the Soviet heritage in civil aviation is two mass-produced long-haul modern aircraft: Il-96 and Tu-204. Regional turbojet Il-114, that was to replace An-24 for local flights in the European part of the USSR, did not go into mass production… efforts are being made to resuscitate the program.
It was not much easier for the aircraft that appeared later, in independent Russia. For Tu-334, a short-haul aircraft, and the amphibian aircraft Be-200, mass production was not developed even after its certification was completed. The next aircraft, regional jet An-148 with a type certificate, was a joint development of Russia and Ukraine with mass production in Voronezh and Kiev. Finally, the short-haul Sukhoi SuperJet 100, created under broad international cooperation, is being tested and has not yet been certified.
All the mentioned aircraft have a very high technological level and flight characteristics whereas their actual efficiency, that is determined by sales financing and after-sale service, is lower than that of the world aircraft construction leaders. That means that the aircraft are competitive as such but not as market products.
Competitiveness of Russian aviation equipment will depend on whether it will be possible to concentrate on the chosen segments and projects. As a matter of fact, up to now the federal budget has been the most important but limited source of financing for all the developments. Vertically integrated structures covering the whole production cycle have been created in the industry in Russia to increase its competitiveness and, to some extent, stop the internal competition… However, it is still too early to discuss elimination of internal competition and concentration on the priority spheres.
Today the largest problems of the Russian aviation are a long period of stagnation, low financing and disintegration; the main challenge in future will be the absence of unique breakthrough products that could overcome the foreign samples in terms of integral efficiency, although Russia has not yet lost the necessary production potential.
What will be essential for the development of Russian aviation in a short-term prospect? Are there any prospects for development of civil aviation?
One of the key conditions of winning the competition is to consolidate the available construction and technological resources. But it’s not the only condition.
It is possible to retain the position of one of the world aviation leaders given there is a solution of some structural questions. The first is the question of human resources. The state should have a leading role in training future specialists and providing conditions for their stable work at aviation enterprises. It is necessary to rebuild the training program for both workers and scientists. The time gap between the older and the younger generation is close to a critical point when the know-how and priceless experience of Soviet designers and engineers can be lost irrecoverably. The costs of rebuilding HR potential in aviation are enormous but they are much lower than the potential damage of completely losing the old designer schools. It is more reasonable to think about the future than try to support inefficient structures and projects.
Besides, aviation industry is very much centered in Moscow and, given potential competition among the aviation sectors for qualified human resources and Moscow’s business structures overtaking the best people, creation of regional R&D clusters might be the only way out.
In the sphere of technologies - namely, instrument making and engine construction - it is necessary to introduce a limited number of projects and aim at unifying them. As for on-board electronics, Russia has good chances of winning a solid position in software development.
What is your assessment of the prospects of Sukhoi SuperJet 100 and MS-21 projects?
SSJ100 is the first project in Russian aviation that is implemented taking into account the world experience and traditions in civil aircraft construction. It is for the first time in the Russian aviation industry that after-sale service is unfolded in parallel with the construction of the aircraft. But the initial priority was the timeframe of launching this product on the market and provision of a 10% technical advantage over the competitors. If it takes too long to enter the market, the aircraft will lose its competitive advantage.
The regional jet market, divided between Embraer and Bombardier, is difficult to enter but a kick-off contractor such as Aeroflot is a chance for the aircraft to demonstrate its operation and make it a landmark for other airlines. Again, time is a big factor here. Europe is a huge potential market with three leaders – Air France, Lufthansa and British Airways, and all of them have filled their fleet for development of regional flights, unfortunately not with SSJ100. Another competitor is China’s ARJ-21 program; Japan continues to develop the MRJ aircraft. Every day the market gets tighter.
It is common knowledge that many international companies are involved in the SSJ100 project…
Boeing acts as a partner for consulting and marketing; Snecma, jointly with NPO Saturn, designed the engine and many world companies supply separate systems and devices. The fact that the developer managed to create such a strong team is obviously a success.
As for MS-21, the policy of NPK Irkut is very discreet: the reason is that they are working on a product that much will depend on in the Russian aviation community. It requires impeccable implementation of all the available global experience.
To a certain extent, MS-21 competes with SSJ100 for the best human resources and budget assets. Besides, there is a risk that when the current product outstrips the existing A320 family by 10-15%, it will be left behind by the next A320 generation. Given all that, it is necessary to invest even more unique technologies and know-how to make MS-21 not just a competitive but an unprecedentedly competitive product.
Slow development of civil aviation in Russia had an impact on the development of air transport with its outdated fleet and unsatisfactory operational characteristics. What should be the optimal ratio of Russian and foreign aircraft for full-fledged operation of aviation and transport?
As the world practice shows, there is no optimal ratio of Russian and foreign aircraft in civil aviation. From an airline’s prospective, focus on a single manufacturer can, on the one hand, help to save operation costs. On the other hand, it is important for aviation and transport to have several suppliers competing to offer the best price for the best products. Consequently, the fleet of some US airlines consists of Airbus and that of European airlines has Boeings.
Airlines should also have free access to the market of foreign aircraft without the existing custom barriers. In fact, protection of Russian market from foreign aircraft killed competition among the airlines. We should support Russian aviation industry but not at the expense of conserving it and losing competitiveness among airlines. Moreover, a full-fledged export aircraft exported from Russia will face the same bilateral barriers on the West.
Many regional airports are currently developing large investment programs. Will general lack of capital influence that? What are the possible solutions for the Russian transport sector to continue the modernization?
According to the transport strategy, Russia will finance the development of infrastructure. In case of air transport, that implies airports and aeronavigation equipment. In case of on-ground infrastructure, the state invests in airfields and airport facilities. Each airport, according to its attractiveness, can count with private investments as well.
A worse investment climate had a negative impact on some investment projects, but, as soon as the economy changes its course from fall to growth, airport facilities will rebuild their attractiveness for the investors. We should admit that the crisis allowed reviewing the attitude to the airport infrastructure and get a more weighted approach to this kind of business. In many cases projects were implemented with clearly excessive financing. Now airport infrastructure development projects become more and more realistic.
Many airports showed an unprecedented growth in terms of the amount of passengers in 2008. Is this trend sustainable? How can it influence the traditional transportation patterns in Russia?
General industry growth rates are exceeding 10%, even 20% in some cases… We’re winning back what we had lost over the previous years but this reserve is not unlimited. Income growth of a certain part of the population did stimulate the operation of air transport but the number of unique fliers did not increase considerably as compared to the increase of the volume of transportation. Systematic growth is attained when transport becomes available for a wide public, so it is important to increase its availability, offer better tariffs and decrease expenses to keep the industry’s profitability using the world experience.
It is also crucial to level up the balance: half of the Russian passengers fly abroad whereas in Europe and USA a considerable number of passengers use domestic flights. Regional transit hubs and regional flights are the key requirements that allow making a quality leap in air transport. Qualitative changes will quickly affect the quantitative indicators.
| Company: | Aviaport |
| Position: | Chief Editor |
| Country: | Russian Federation |